Politics
Is European Recognition of Palestine a Game-Changer?
A system as such undermines the principles of equality and self-determination, posing the question, "Why should we have a system where the freedom of one depends on the will of another?". The freedom and recognition of one entity should not depend on the will of another.
Ali Fahd
Since the October 7 incident, a global movement calling for the recognition of Palestinian statehood has been reinvigorated by the massacre of Israel in Gaza. Unprecedentedly, the Israeli massacre in Gaza has pushed several countries to the inclination of recognizing Palestine. As of June 2024, the State of Palestine is recognized as a sovereign state by 145 out of the 193 United Nations member states, of which 13 of them are European countries. Spain, Ireland, and Norway's joint recognition has overturned the Western countries' long-standing stance that a Palestinian state can only be established via negotiated peace talks with Israel.
The Impact of Israel's War on Gaza on Social and Political Stability in Western Countries
The Israeli war on Gaza is of great interest to the West mostly because the outcome of the war might destabilize the world order.The Middle East's abundance of natural resources is another factor that makes it a region of great significance. Wars in the Middle East have historically frequently resulted in an increase in oil prices because the area contributes significantly to global energy production.
The impact of the war on global financial markets will depend on the duration and involvement of major nations. Countries with direct trade ties to Israel are likely to be more affected if the war persists. If the situation worsens or remains unresolved, countries including the US, Canada, Mexico, the EU, Türkiye, the MERCOSUR bloc, and European Free Trade Association members may experience significant economic consequences, trade disruptions, and market changes. Additionally, countries with indirect economic connections might be impacted by fluctuating oil prices and broader economic instability. This conflict could influence almost every country globally, either directly or indirectly. Furthermore, social and political unrest may arise, particularly in Western nations with significant Jewish and Muslim populations, leading to national instability. No country would willingly tolerate such circumstances.
The Recognition of European Countries
On October 27, 2023, the United Nations General Assembly called for aid to the Gaza Strip and urged Israel and Hamas to cease hostilities. In the vote, 14 nations, including Israel, the United States, Austria, Hungary, and Croatia, voted against the resolution, while 120 nations supported it and 45 abstained. It's significant to remember that Palestine abstained from the vote since the UN does not recognize it as a sovereign state.
Many Western countries supporting Israel besides the United States include France, Britain, Italy, Germany, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. These countries, expressing their support for Israel, have condemned Hamas. Furthermore, a statement endorsing Israel's right to self-defence was published by the European Union that they will keep providing Palestine with financial support and humanitarian help, just as they did in the past. As a result, Palestine has just a few Western countries that support its independence from the Zionist state.
Although several countries under the United Nations have recognized the Palestinian state, none of the leading Western powers have followed suit. However,the Western world is currently witnessing an ideological shift and instability in the international order, mainly due to the continuing war. Sweden, Cyprus, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, Romania, and Bulgaria are among the EU states that have recognized Palestine as a state before the cross-border attacks of October 7. In May 2024, Spain, Ireland, and Norway formally recognized Palestine as a state. Slovenia's decision in June 2024 by recognizing the state of Palestine makes it the latest European Union country to do so. Malta has suggested it will also take the same step, although not immediately. The United Kingdom and Australia have stated that they are considering recognizing Palestine. Meanwhile, France has made it clear that now is not the ideal moment for such a move. Germany continues to be Israel's largest supporter after the United States, which has opposed a unilateral approach, underlining that a two-state solution can only be achieved via dialogue.
Evaluation and Conclusion
The recognition of Palestine by major European Union countries marks a significant shift in the history of the Palestinian liberation movement post-1948. This can be characterized as a deliberate effort to urge other European Union countries to do the same. The recent collective move by Spain, Ireland, and especially Norway, a country with a long history of diplomacy and peacemaking, might accelerate the process of other European Union members recognizing a Palestinian state. This, in turn, might lead to additional United Nations resolutions that further isolate Israel. Such developments send a powerful message to the moderate forces engaged in the conflict. The recent recognitions by the European Union countries are portrayed as a critical step in advancing the two-state solution, which was adopted by the United Nations in 1947, implying that it can promote a cease-fire through political and diplomatic channels.
It is worthwhile to acknowledge that the war can result in significant international implications. The subject of possible change in the international order emerges in the middle of these uncertainties. The East, represented by countries such as Russia and China, is watching for any opportunity to exploit any weakness in the Western response, with the BRICS already criticizing Israel. The capacity of Western countries to negotiate these problems will not only define their own destiny but will also affect the dynamics of global politics and public opinion as they assess who is aligned with their goals. Moreover, the ongoing war has the potential to exacerbate internal divisions in political parties in the Western countries.
Another crucial issue to examine in the matter of Palestine is the fundamental flaw in the international system. We can see that, even if all the European nations recognize Palestine's statehood, Palestine remains vulnerable on a global scale if any of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council reject it. A system as such undermines the principles of equality and self-determination, posing the question, "Why should we have a system where the freedom of one depends on the will of another?". The freedom and recognition of one entity should not depend on the will of another. Nevertheless, the recognitions stemming from the major European countries represent a victory for the Palestinians, as they perceive these recognitions as granting global legitimacy to their struggle, particularly considering the current international uproar over the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. Meanwhile, Israel does not welcome these recognitions by any chance and has therefore withdrawn its ambassadors from the countries that have openly recognized Palestine. However, the symbolic significance of the countries recognizing the potential for an existing Palestinian state will continue to raise the reputation of the Palestinians internationally and increase the pressure on Israel to begin peace negotiations. The diplomatic pressure exerted on Israel by the recognizing European countries represents their positive contribution towards ending the hostilities between the two parties, as no nation wishes to be on the wrong side of history.
References
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Nichols, E. M. a. M. (2023, October 28). Revealed: The European countries that voted for, and against ceasefire in Gaza as Israel launches ground invas. Irish Independent. https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/revealed-the-european-countries-that-voted-for-and-against-ceasefire-in-gaza-as-israel-launches-ground-invasion/a24545029.html.
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